With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’: Arthur Hayes
John: Hey everyone, I’m John, a veteran writer for Blockchain Bulletin, where I break down the latest in Web3, crypto, and blockchain in simple terms. Today, we’re diving into Arthur Hayes’ optimistic take on the U.S. Treasury General Account refill and its potential boost for crypto markets—based on fresh updates from reliable sources like CryptoSlate and Cointelegraph. For readers who want a full step-by-step guide, you can also check this exchange guide.
Lila: Hi, I’m Lila, John’s curious assistant always eager to learn more about crypto. John, what’s this Treasury General Account thing, and why does Arthur Hayes think it’s good news for crypto prices?
What is the Treasury General Account?
John: Great question, Lila. The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is essentially the U.S. government’s main checking account at the Federal Reserve, used for managing daily cash flows like tax collections and spending. As of now in 2025, it’s been in the spotlight because the Treasury has been refilling it after depleting reserves during high-spending periods.
Lila: Like a government’s savings jar? But how does refilling it affect something like Bitcoin?
John: Exactly, think of it as the government’s piggy bank—when they refill it, they’re pulling money from the broader financial system, which can temporarily drain liquidity. This process started ramping up after the debt ceiling resolution in mid-2023, but fast-forward to 2025-09-21, and sources like Cointelegraph report it’s nearing completion at a target of $850 billion.
Arthur Hayes’ Take on the TGA Refill
John: Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has been vocal about this. In his recent statements, as covered by CryptoSlate on 2025-09-20, he described the TGA refill as a “liquidity drain” that’s muted crypto markets lately. But once it’s done, he predicts an “up only” phase where prices could surge due to restored liquidity flowing back into private markets.
Lila: “Up only” sounds exciting—what does that mean in crypto slang?
John: It’s trader talk for a bullish trend where prices just keep climbing, like a rocket with no reverse gear (and hey, who doesn’t love a good moonshot?). Hayes shared this view in updates echoed by BitcoinEthereumNews on 2025-09-21, tying it to the Treasury aiming for that $850 billion mark.
Impact on Crypto Markets
John: In the past, similar liquidity shifts have influenced crypto. For instance, back in 2021, when the Treasury drew down the TGA amid COVID-19 stimulus, it injected billions into the economy, contributing to Bitcoin’s rally past $60,000 by 2021-04-13. Now, with the refill nearing its end as per Arthur Hayes’ analysis, markets might see a reversal of that drain.
Lila: So, less drain means more money for crypto? Are there examples from this year?
John: Spot on. Earlier in 2025, Hayes predicted in a CryptoBriefing piece from 2025-01-07 that a $612 billion liquidity surge from Treasury and Fed actions could peak Bitcoin by March 2025. While we saw highs around that time, the ongoing refill has caused wobbles, but completion could restart the momentum—though remember, this is based on verified reports, not guarantees.
Historical Context and Past Events
John: Looking back, the TGA hit lows during the 2020 pandemic, dropping below $100 billion by mid-2020 as the government spent heavily. By 2021-08-01, it ballooned to over $1.8 trillion, per Federal Reserve data. This yo-yo effect has often correlated with market volatility, as noted in Arthur Hayes’ essays on platforms like CCN.com from 2025-01-07.
Lila: That’s a huge swing! How does it connect to today’s situation?
John: It shows patterns—drains tighten markets, refills can ease them. In July 2025, CryptoBriefing reported on 2025-07-03 that Bitcoin might retest $90,000 amid TGA plans, highlighting Hayes’ warnings of short-term dips before potential upsides (and let’s hope history doesn’t repeat the boring parts).
Current Status as of 2025-09-21
John: As of today, 2025-09-21, real-time updates from sources like FutuBull and Cointelegraph indicate the TGA refill is almost complete, approaching the $850 billion target. Arthur Hayes stated that once hit, liquidity should flow into crypto, potentially sparking growth. However, some analysts, as mentioned in BitcoinEthereumNews, remain skeptical about the direct link between Treasury actions and crypto prices.
Lila: Skeptical how? Isn’t liquidity key for markets?
John: Yes, but experts like André Dragosch point out weak correlations in recent data. Still, Hayes’ optimism is backed by patterns; for example, post-refill scenarios in past years often saw market rebounds, per verified Cointelegraph reports from 2025-09-20.
Looking Ahead: Potential Use Cases and Risks
John: Moving forward, if Hayes is right, this could mean more institutional investment in crypto, like Bitcoin ETFs that surged after approvals on 2024-01-10. Use cases might expand in DeFi, where liquidity boosts lending platforms. But risks include regulatory changes—keep an eye on Treasury updates via official sites.
Lila: What about safeguards for beginners?
John: Good point. Here’s a quick list of tips:
- Diversify your portfolio—don’t put all eggs in one crypto basket.
- Stay informed with trusted sources like CoinDesk for real-time news.
- Use secure wallets and enable two-factor authentication to protect assets.
- Monitor liquidity indicators, such as Fed balance sheets, for market signals.
John: And avoid knee-jerk reactions to predictions (easier said than done during a bull run!).
FAQs on TGA and Crypto
Lila: This is helpful—can we cover some common questions?
John: Absolutely. One FAQ: How does the TGA differ from the Fed’s balance sheet? The TGA is the Treasury’s cash, while the Fed manages broader money supply. Another: Will this definitely pump crypto? Based on Hayes’ view from 2025-09-20 CryptoSlate, it’s a strong possibility post-refill, but markets are unpredictable.
Lila: Got it—what about global impacts?
John: U.S. liquidity affects worldwide markets; for instance, European exchanges saw ripples during the 2023 debt ceiling drama resolved on 2023-06-03.
John: Wrapping this up, it’s fascinating how government accounts like the TGA can ripple into crypto—Arthur Hayes’ insights remind us to watch liquidity for those “up only” moments. Stay curious and informed, folks. And if you’d like even more exchange tips, have a look at this global guide.
Lila: Thanks, John—key takeaway: Liquidity matters, so keep an eye on that TGA target for potential crypto excitement ahead!
This article was created using the original article below and verified real-time sources:
- With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’: Arthur Hayes
- Crypto ready for ‘up only’ mode once US TGA hits $850B target: Arthur Hayes
- Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Growth Post-U.S. Treasury Refill
- Bitcoin could retest $90K as Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill sets stage for liquidity crunch: Arthur Hayes
- Crypto Market To Peak in March 2025, Then Crash, Says Arthur Hayes | CCN.com